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At first, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "significant consequences" last August if Russia's president carried on obstructing truce discussions, he ultimately imposed major restrictions on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his latest detailed peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that essential independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, the former president seems to treat the war as a simple territorial dispute, implying giving Putin a section of Ukrainian territory will please the ruler. However, Putin's war is not only about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Surrenders

While freezing in position the currently separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with land that its military have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically compromised.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, giving Putin a open path to Kyiv should he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would enable renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan imposes no such constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's democratically elected government as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "Every Nazi belief system and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But given that the Russian leadership has broken similar agreements in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should the international community trust Putin on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on western defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "strong coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars include unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from rebuilding his reduced troops, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

A separate parallel deal reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "major, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a armed reaction. But unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to react with force to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not