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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still