Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.