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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.