The toppling and reported capture by invading American military units of Venezuela's socialist president will send a shiver of fear and consternation around the world. This coup is illegal, without justification, and regionally and globally destabilising. It upends global standards, disregards sovereign territorial rights, and risks creating an anarchic situation inside Venezuela itself.
It is chaos made policy. But this is the world we now live in – the world according to the US President.
An Extraordinary and Dangerous Assertion of Unfettered US Power
The overt assault on Venezuela signifies an extraordinary, dangerous declaration of unchecked American might and arrives the same week that the President menaced military strikes against another unpopular anti-western regime: that of Iran. It comes after many months of increasing US pressure through military, economic, and political means on Maduro, encompassing lethal maritime attacks on boats of alleged drug traffickers.
Trump claims to be acting to prevent illegal narcotics entering the US via Venezuela and to cease an alleged influx of “criminal” migrants. In an repetition of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, he is also charged with desiring Venezuela’s vast petroleum and natural gas reserves – doubts strengthened by repeated, illegal US confiscations of Venezuelan petroleum carriers.
But Trump’s chief motivations appear to be personal animosity directed at Maduro, and a desire to revive the 19th-century Monroe doctrine by creating a American zone of control and supremacy throughout the west.
Hemispheric Alarm and Worldwide Consequences
Regional leaders, including Colombia’s president, who has clashed with Trump in the past few months, met the takeover with outrage and alarm; in part, possibly, because they worry they also could become victims of Washington’s aggressive new hegemony. Cuba’s leftwing government has special reason for worry. It depends significantly on Venezuela’s regime for cheap energy and backing in politics and economics.
The US secretary of state has made no secret of his desire for regime change in Havana. In Panama, too, levels of concern will be elevated. Trump has previously threatened military action there, over control of the Panama Canal. Indeed, the alleged apprehension of Maduro recalls the 1989 US invasion of Panama and the toppling and arrest of its leader at the time.
Authoritarian, anti-democratic regimes around the world will be closely observing Trump’s next steps, as will Washington’s democratic allies. Iran denounced the overthrow. It has good reason to be apprehensive. But Russia’s president may not be totally displeased by the removal of his Venezuelan ally.
A Perilous Benchmark for International Disputes
Trump’s unjustified turn to force is not so very different from moves during the invasion of Ukraine. Both have illegally attacked a bordering nation and attempted to oust its government. For China’s leader, whose forces were last week conducting military exercises against the “separatists” of Taiwan, Trump has just set a precedent he may one day gladly follow.
Trump’s coup is of great concern to Britain, the EU and western democracies. They should, and must, unequivocally condemn it. It openly confronts the rules and principles of the global system they cherish. The US has yet again ignored the UN and conventional approaches of addressing disputes between nations. And it is proceeding with seemingly little consideration for the subsequent events in Venezuela.
Uncertain Aftermath and Potential for Chaos
The Caracas government has been decapitated, but remaining high-ranking figures of the regime appear still to be at their posts. They are urging resistance and, possibly, retaliation against the US. There are unverified accounts of civilian casualties. If a leadership void develops, civil stability could collapse, igniting civil war or a potential armed takeover. And it is uncertain whether the latest US military action has concluded, or may escalate further.
The idea that banished dissident figures will swiftly return and that full democracy will now be reinstated is unrealistic. The coming days will be critical. And the responsibility lies entirely with Trump.
The Myth of the Peacemaker
Trump’s imprudent move should at last bury his always misleading self-portrayal as a “world peacemaker”. It’s high time that leaders in Europe openly acknowledge him for who he is – a global warmaker, a worldwide threat.
Each time he blunders noisily into areas of dispute, imposing timelines, issuing ultimatums, choosing sides and monetising misery, the pursuit of fair and enduring peace is hindered.
No surprise peace is elusive. And bizarrely, even while posing as a neutral peace broker and one who avoids intervention, Trump concurrently conducts warfare on the world. The US conducted unprecedented levels of air strikes in the Middle East and Africa the previous year, surveys show.
A Heritage Built on Violence
Since returning to office a year ago, the ostensibly peace-seeking President has launched strikes in Yemen, carelessly killing numerous civilians after loosening rules of engagement; attacked targets in Nigeria, to detrimental outcomes; struck locations in Somalia, Iraq and Syria; and bombed Iran, where he falsely inflated the success of US strikes on nuclear facilities. He even will not exclude attacking Greenland, a independent land of a NATO partner.
What’s going on in the President's mind? A charitable view is that in issues of conflict and tranquility, he has no idea what he is doing – no plan, no understanding – and makes up policy as he goes, based on how he feels.
The sinister interpretation says he knows exactly what he is doing, that greater and more severe actions are forthcoming. Like previous second-term presidents who ran out of road domestically, Trump finds the world stage offers greater possibilities for the application of authority and self-importance. He is building a legacy through violence.
Trump’s reckless, perilously unstable conduct is getting noticeably more severe. His Venezuela “triumph” may embolden him to try further and bigger, unhinged outrages. He struts and preens, cries havoc! and lets slip the hounds of conflict.
